Cedi to end 2025 at GH¢15.50 to $1 despite early gains-Fitch

Fitch Solutions has projected that the Ghanaian cedi will end 2025 at GH¢15.50 to one US dollar, with an average annual rate of GH¢15.30/USD. This is significantly higher than Absa Bank’s forecast of GH¢14.00 by year-end.

Although the cedi began 2025 at GH¢15.83 to the dollar, it has recently strengthened to GH¢13.50 in the retail market as of May 19, marking a 17.17% appreciation, making it the best-performing currency globally.

In its latest report titled “High Gold Prices Will Shield Ghanaian Economy from Tariff Fallout,” Fitch noted that high gold prices will support the Bank of Ghana’s efforts to stabilize the cedi. However, it cautioned that this alone may not guarantee full-year stability.

“We expect the BoG to focus on keeping the cedi stable, facilitated by elevated gold prices,” Fitch said. It projected that gold prices will average a record US$3,100 per ounce in 2025, a 29.7% jump from 2024, due to global uncertainties, expected US rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions.

Additionally, Fitch forecasts a lower energy import bill from falling oil prices, boosting Ghana’s current account surplus to an all-time high of 6.9% of GDP.

It also expects Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves to rise from US$6.4 billion to US$11.5 billion this year.

“The strengthened external position will enable the BoG to mitigate any bouts of cedi volatility stemming from global risk-off sentiment,” Fitch concluded.