World Bank predicts 2025 food prices to fall as grain drops 11%

The World Bank has projected a significant drop in 2025 food prices, with its Food Price Index expected to fall by 7% year-on-year and continue edging down in 2026.

According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook, all sub-categories, grains, oils and meals, and other foods, are anticipated to decline in 2025. Grain prices are projected to fall by 11%, oils by 7%, and other food items by 5%.

This drop is largely driven by a 29% plunge in rice prices, thanks to increased global supply and eased export restrictions, especially from India. India alone, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, is expected to boost production by 5%.

Wheat prices are also set to decline slightly as global production remains strong but is marginally outpaced by consumption. Maize prices, meanwhile, are forecast to dip by 2% in both 2025 and 2026 due to weaker ethanol demand and ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Despite the overall decline, tight inventories, especially for maize, could limit the extent of price reductions, with stocks projected to hit their lowest levels in over a decade.

In 2026, food prices are expected to stabilize across all categories. These developments offer potential relief for global consumers struggling with inflation and high grocery bills over the past few years.

The World Bank’s forecast brings cautious optimism for food affordability and accessibility in the near term, especially in vulnerable economies.