Policy analyst and pollster,Musah Dankwah, has defended the credibility of his primary survey on the National Democratic Congress (NDC) Ayawaso East parliamentary race despite the outcome differing from his projections.
Reacting to the results of the just ended NDC primaries, Dankwah disclosed in a Facebook post that his Model 1 predictions had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent. According to him, while some candidates performed within the projected range, others exceeded or fell short of expectations.
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He indicated that Mohammed Remni recorded nine percent in the election, which he noted was within the model’s expected six percent plus the three percent margin of error. Dankwah further explained that Hajia Amina, who was projected to secure 50 percent, polled 41 percent, representing an underperformance of nine percent, which he said was six percent outside the margin of error.
On the performance of Hon. Baba Jamal, Dankwah stated that the former Member of Parliament was projected to obtain 38 percent, with the margin of error placing him around 41 percent. However, Baba Jamal secured 45 percent, which Dankwah described as four percent outside the model’s margin.
He also noted that Dr. Yakubu Azindow and Najib M. Sani performed largely within the predicted range of the poll.
Despite acknowledging his defeat in the internal party race analysis, Dankwah suggested that external influences may have impacted the outcome of the election. He hinted that inducements may have played a role, stating that it “took bribes to defeat science and data,” while leaving the interpretation of the claim to the public.
The Ayawaso East NDC primaries attracted significant attention due to the competitive nature of the race and its implications for the party’s parliamentary prospects in the constituency.
