Ghana’s economy is on course to grow by more than 4.8% in 2025, according to IC Research’s latest report titled “Ghana’s Q1 2025 Real GDP Growth: Green Shoots in Tight Soil.”
Also Read
The projection follows a strong start to the year, with impressive first-quarter performance despite ongoing fiscal constraints. “We foresee FY2025 overall growth likely above our upper-band forecast of 4.8%. However, we opt to keep our forecast within the current range of 3.8%–4.8% as we monitor the fiscal drag on Q2 performance,” the report stated.
Strong Start to the Year
Real GDP expanded by 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from 4.9% in Q1 2024. Excluding oil and gas, which contracted, non-oil GDP surged by 6.8%, reflecting strong private-sector activity.
IC Research says the result shows deep resilience in the real economy and raises optimism about the country’s overall performance in 2025.
Sectoral Highlights
Agriculture
The sector grew by 6.6%, buoyed by a 6.7% increase in crops and cocoa production. IC Research highlighted the role of strong crop yields in reducing food inflation since February 2025.
The government’s GHS1.5 billion investment under the Agriculture for Economic Transformation Agenda, targeting grains, vegetables, and poultry, is expected to yield results by the Q3 2025 harvest.
Industry
Growth slowed to 3.4%, primarily due to a 22.1% contraction in the oil and gas sector. Mining and quarrying slowed to 1.4% from 12.8% last year, while construction growth fell to 1.5% from 8.2%. The decline reflects the government’s pause on contractor payments as it audits inherited arrears.
Services
The services sector grew by 5.9% year-on-year, compared to 4.7% in Q1 2024. Key drivers included trade, digital services, finance, and transport. The sector contributed 2.54 percentage points to the overall GDP growth.
Outlook
Despite downside risks from public spending cuts, IC Research remains cautiously optimistic. The first-quarter data signals that Ghana’s economy may outperform expectations, especially if agricultural output continues its strong showing and service sector momentum holds steady.
