According to a forecast by the Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC), Ghanaians could see a drop in fuel prices of between 5% and 9% in the next pricing window. The expected decrease is mainly due to the strengthening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar.
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Ghana’s fuel prices are reviewed every two weeks, reflecting changes in global oil prices, exchange rates, and import costs. Based on ASEC’s market analysis, petrol could drop to GHS 12.00–12.60 per litre, while diesel may sell for GHS 12.60–13.20 per litre.
Crude oil prices have dipped significantly, from around $85 per barrel in January to about $64. But ASEC said the cedi’s recent gains have had a stronger effect on local pump prices.
“Importers are now spending fewer cedis per dollar, which should lower fuel prices,” ASEC said in a statement.
This is a relief for many Ghanaians facing rising living costs. However, the think tank warned that lower oil prices could hurt government revenue, as Ghana depends on oil exports for foreign income. The recent price drop of more than 24% could lead to budget shortfalls.
“Unless exchange rates are the main factor, lower oil prices mean lower revenues,” ASEC noted. “The government may need to ramp up production to meet targets.”
ASEC predicts that if current trends hold, fuel prices could fall further in the second half of 2025. Crude is expected to remain between $62 and $65 per barrel due to higher output from OPEC+ and slower demand in the US and China.
The think tank urged the government to balance consumer relief with policies that protect long-term fiscal stability and energy security.
Fuel prices remain a key driver of inflation in Ghana, affecting transport, food, and the general cost of living. While the drop may be short-lived, it offers some breathing room for both households and businesses.
