The Ghana cedi is forecast to close the year at GH¢11.45 per US dollar on the interbank market, according to the latest update from IC Research, a leading economic analysis firm in Ghana.
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The firm expects enhanced price discovery as exchange rates on the foreign exchange market begin to converge.
“We expect the interbank rate to gradually rise towards our revised 2025 midpoint forecast of GH¢10.95/USD, with a projected ceiling at GH¢11.45/USD by year-end,” IC Research noted.
Currently, the cedi is trading at approximately GH¢10.40 on the interbank market, while retail market rates exceed GH¢12, reflecting a widening gap between official and street-level exchange rates.
BoG’s Interventions Raise Concern
While acknowledging the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) efforts to stabilize the exchange rate and curb inflation, IC Research highlighted the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) concern over the central bank’s continued strong intervention in the forex market.
“Our estimates show that year-to-date FX sales have reached US$4.6 billion as of July 7, 2025,” IC Research stated.
The report attributed part of the cedi’s recent performance to the BoG’s tweaked domestic gold purchase programme, which has allowed the central bank to accumulate foreign exchange reserves while simultaneously selling dollars on the market.
This strategy, however, has led to a significant pricing gap: the interbank rate of GH¢10.35/USD contrasts sharply with the retail market rate of over GH¢12, which aligns more closely with the firm’s estimated fair value of GH¢12.20/USD.
IMF Recommends Exchange Rate Flexibility
The IMF has recommended that the Bank of Ghana reduce its presence in the forex market, urging a shift toward greater exchange rate flexibility.
In line with this, IC Research noted that the BoG recently extended its FX delivery tenor from 2-day Forwards to 7-day Forwards, beginning June 11, 2025, a move likely aimed at addressing IMF concerns and allowing for better alignment with market fundamentals.
