The Bank of Ghana is expected to maintain its policy rate at 28%, with any potential cuts hinging on continued disinflation progress, according to Databank Research.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to begin its quarterly meeting from May 21 to May 23, 2025, during which the central bank will review economic conditions and announce its policy decision.
Databank suggests that the MPC will likely adopt a cautious stance, choosing to observe the effects of earlier tightening before considering rate adjustments. Their projections indicate that inflation could ease to 17–19% by mid-year, driven by base effects and relative price stability.
“This should allow for a measured easing of 100–200 basis points by late July 2025,” Databank stated. “As 91-day yields continue to anchor the Ghana Reference Rate, we expect a gradual improvement in private sector credit, reinforcing prospects for rate cuts in the second half of the year.”
In March 2025, the Bank of Ghana raised its benchmark rate by 100 basis points, citing the need to anchor inflation expectations.
To bolster monetary transmission, the central bank also introduced a 273-day instrument, stepped up monitoring of banks’ Net Open Positions (NOPs), and began reviewing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) structure to better manage liquidity in the financial system.
