Research conducted by the Awake Election Watch indicates that former Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia is on course to emerge as the flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party at the party’s presidential primary scheduled for the 31st January.
Also Read
However, the same research suggests that while this victory may be decisive within the party, it could also mark the political burial of the NPP ahead of the 2028 general elections.
Research Methodology
The Awake Election Watch based its findings on delegate sentiment modelling, historical voting patterns within the NPP, regional executive influence analysis, incumbency advantage assessment, and comparative turnout behaviour from previous party primaries. The figures presented are projections and estimates and not official results.
Tread analysis has shown that since after 1992 elections, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) never changed their presidential candidates who sought re-election as the flagbearer.
In the 1996 presidential election, John Agyekum Kufuor stood instead as the candidate for the NPP. In 1998, Prof. Adu Boahen tried to return as the New Patriotic Party’s presidential nominee, but John Kufour who was incumbent chosen instead. Ultimately, Mr. Kufour won the 2000 presidential election and became president for two terms.
In 2008, the then President Kufour had finished his term given a level playing field for presidential candidate aspirates in 2007 where there for a run-off between former President Akufo-Addo and Alan Kyeremanteng with Nana Addo Akufo-Addo eventually becoming the Flagbearer after Alan Kyeremanteg stepped down for him.
Nana Akudo-Addo since 2007 was never changed as the flagbearer until he won the 3rd Presidential attempt in 2016.
Based on these historical trends, sentiment modelling, social media samplings, all fact point to possible victory for Dr. Bawumia in the upcoming January 31, 2026 Presidential Primaries.
Projected Regional Performance
Northern Regions
The strongest support for Bawumia is projected to come from the northern part of the country. The research indicates that loyalty to incumbency, identity alignment, and strong executive mobilisation will play a major role in these areas.
Northern Region is projected at 78 percent
Upper East Region is projected at 81 percent
Upper West Region is projected at 76 percent
Savannah Region is projected at 73 percent
North East Region is projected at 75 percent
These regions alone are expected to provide a significant vote cushion capable of determining the outcome of the contest.
Middle Belt Regions
In the middle belt, Bawumia is expected to secure comfortable victories, though the research shows these wins are driven more by party structure and strategic calculations than by grassroots enthusiasm.
Ashanti Region is projected at 62 percent
Bono Region is projected at 59 percent
Bono East Region is projected at 57 percent
Ahafo Region is projected at 55 percent
The Ashanti Region remains numerically decisive, but the research points to declining excitement among delegates who are instead focused on protecting party continuity.
Southern and Coastal Regions
In the southern and coastal regions, Bawumia is projected to win narrowly due largely to vote splitting among rival candidates rather than overwhelming popularity.
Greater Accra Region is projected at 54 percent
Eastern Region is projected at 56 percent
Central Region is projected at 52 percent
Western Region is projected at 53 percent
Western North Region is projected at 55 percent
Volta Region is projected at 48 percent
Oti Region is projected at 50 percent
Overall Projection
The Awake Election Watch estimates that Dr. Bawumia will secure between 61 percent and 65 percent of the total delegate vote nationwide. This is expected to be sufficient to deliver a clear first round victory and confirm him as the party’s flagbearer.
Why This Victory Could Become the Burial of the NPP
Despite the projected internal victory, the research identifies several warning signals that suggest the outcome could weaken the NPP going into the 2028 elections.
First, Dr. Bawumia’s long presence at the centre of government links him directly to economic hardship, rising debt, and declining living standards in the eyes of the electorate.
Second, the research highlights a growing disconnect between delegate preferences and the broader voter base. What works internally for the party may not resonate with the national electorate.
Third, youth and swing voters show increasing fatigue with the NPP brand, particularly in urban areas where economic pressures are most intense.
Fourth, the party is expected to struggle to present a convincing message of renewal and change after eight years in power.
Finally, internal divisions following the primaries may suppress enthusiasm among supporters of defeated contenders, leading to voter apathy or protest voting.
Conclusion
The Awake Election Watch concludes that Mahamudu Bawumia is statistically positioned to win the NPP flagbearership on the 31st with strong support across multiple regions. However, the same data suggests that this victory could represent the funeral and burial of the NPP’s electoral fortunes ahead of the 2028 general elections.
According to the research team, the 31st may crown a flagbearer but it could also signal the beginning of the end.
